First, the economy, immigration, health care, and abortion.
I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”
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First: A quick apology. Yesterday I told readers that I would be appearing live on Fox29 at 1:00 pm ET. The segment — on the state of the race in Pennsylvania and Bucks County — was actually on tape delay, and will appear on S.E. Cupp’s show Battleground today. Air times vary based on where you live, but it’ll be up at 7:00 pm ET in Philadelphia and will air on their YouTube channel this evening.
A brief introduction.
Election Day is five and a half weeks away. In the past two months, a series of historic events have shaken up the presidential race, including a second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump this past weekend. It can be easy to lose track of the comparatively dry policy issues undergirding the campaigns, but both candidates’ platforms have begun to crystallize as we enter the home stretch of the race.
Vice President Kamala Harris recently released an “Issues” page on her campaign website outlining her stance on key issues. On the campaign trail, she’s gradually rolled out several major proposals that are distinct from President Joe Biden’s agenda. Meanwhile, former President Trump has given numerous policy-focused speeches on the economy, immigration and trade, all while putting forward his “Agenda47” plan as his platform for a second term.
With each candidate working to frame the election in terms of their preferred narratives, it can be difficult for voters to parse exactly where the candidates stand on the most important issues facing the country. So at the request of Tangle readers, we’re going to provide just that — a side-by-side comparison of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on the economy, immigration, healthcare, abortion, crime, the environment, guns, and foreign policy. These aren’t the only important issues in 2024 (for instance, many voters see the health of U.S. democracy as a major concern, albeit for different reasons), but they’re consistently rated as the most important to voters, and we think they will be decisive in determining the election’s winner.
Two important notes: First, despite the length of these sections, it is impossible to cover every success and failure of each candidate. So, naturally, we will miss some things. We won’t be endorsing or criticizing either candidate’s positions, either. Instead, this piece aims to give you a neutral and organized breakdown of what Trump and Harris have promised in the past, what they’ve done in office, and what they are promising to do as we head into 2025.
Second, we’ll be breaking today’s edition up into two parts. This is Part 1: The economy, immigration, health care, and abortion. Part 2, which will include crime, guns, the environment, and foreign policy, will land in your inbox around 1:00 pm ET.
Let’s dive in.
The economy.
This is an incredibly broad category, so we’ll focus on just a few issues that matter the most to voters: inflation and tax policy. U.S. voters say inflation is the most important issue facing the country this election, and it’s easy to see why: The price of nearly every good has spiked since 2019. Annual inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), was at 4.7% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022, and 4.1% in 2023. Inflation outpaced wage growth for much of that stretch. While inflation has cooled this year (and wage growth has started running ahead), prices of everyday goods and services are still notably higher than they were four years ago — 67% of voters say food prices are the area they’ve seen most impacted by inflation (which price-tracking data affirms).
Trump’s positions and record
Prior to the pandemic, Trump oversaw an economy that grew steadily and added jobs, while prices of common goods and services held steady or decreased. Notable economic figures under Trump included:
- Median household incomes reached their highest level ever
- Poverty rates hit all-time lows
- The unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low
- Unemployment rates for African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, and Americans without a high school diploma hit record lows
- Pre-Covid, the economy added 7 million new jobs
- The economy had 40 consecutive months with more job openings than job hirings
- The bottom 50% of American households (by income) saw a 40% increase in their net worth
The pandemic undercut many of these gains (for example, the economy lost 21.9 million jobs in just March and April of 2020), but the economy had begun to rebound by the time Trump left office, with 57% of the jobs that had been lost during the pandemic returning.
Inflation wasn’t a major issue during Trump’s first term, with annual inflation (as measured by CPI) between 1.2% and 2.4% annually from 2017-2020. Excluding the pandemic months, growth after inflation averaged 2.67% under Trump (compared to 2.33% during President Obama’s second term).
Trump’s 2017 tax cuts were a signature policy achievement of his administration. They lowered the corporate tax rate to 21% and temporarily lowered individual tax rates, aiming to stimulate economic growth and return money to individuals’ paychecks — initial assessments of the tax cuts’s impact have found that they accelerated GDP growth in the short term but are likely to have a modest effect on GDP in the long run. The individual cuts expire in 2025.
Trump’s plans for 2025
Addressing inflation is a centerpiece of Trump’s campaign; item number three on his platform is “End inflation, and make America affordable again.” In a campaign video, Trump blames President Biden’s policies for inflation and promises to “unleash energy production, slash regulations, like I did just three years ago, and repeal Biden's tax hikes to get inflation down as fast as possible.”
In a separate video, Trump outlines his plan to reduce government waste and inflation through impoundment, which he says allows him to defer or rescind funds allocated by Congress to federal agencies and programs.
The GOP platform, which Trump endorsed, contains a series of proposals to bring down inflation and prices. The core tenets of this plan are:
- Reviving the defense industrial base, investing in emerging industries, and increasing oil and natural gas drilling
- Cutting government spending
- Implementing a deregulatory agenda similar to Trump’s first term
- Neutralizing risks abroad that impact commodity prices
- Reducing the flow of undocumented migrants into the country tol drive down housing, education, and healthcare costs
Relatedly, Trump has proposed significant tariffs on imports from China, which he has said will not create inflation but combat it (though most economists disagree). Trump has also pledged to cut costs by restoring "energy independence" through drilling more oil and lowering gas prices, as well as offering tax breaks for producers of oil, gas, and coal. Additionally, Trump’s plans to deport millions of undocumented migrants may affect the cost and availability of labor in certain economic sectors.
Finally, Trump aims to exercise greater influence over the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve (the president already appoints members to the Fed’s board). In August, Trump said he wanted more of a say in interest rate decisions, which have a direct impact on inflation.
On taxes, Trump supports renewing the 2017 tax cuts and passing additional cuts for workers. In particular, he has proposed eliminating federal taxes on tips, as well as Social Security benefits and overtime pay. The former president also wants to lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for companies that make their products in the United States.
Harris’s positions and record
Inflation became a prominent global issue in the latter half of the Covid-19 pandemic, so Harris’s record on inflation refers only to her time as vice president. Over the first 42 months of Biden’s term, the consumer price index increased 19% . Annual inflation peaked at 9% in 2022, and the 12-month inflation rate currently sits at 2.5% as of August.
Under Biden, GDP has grown steadily and unemployment has remained low, though consumer sentiment has remained negative. Additionally, household net worth rose to a record $156.2 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 (from $131.4 trillion at the end of 2020).
Prior to becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris made limited comments about inflation but largely defended the administration’s handling of the issue. In 2021, when inflation was beginning to surge, Harris acknowledged the “stress” inflation was causing families and said the administration needed to work with labor unions to address bottlenecks that were hampering the supply chain at the time. She also touted Biden’s Build Back Better Act as a plan to bring down costs across the economy (the bill did not pass the Senate).
Later, in 2023, Harris said the U.S. had done a better job of managing inflation “than most advanced economies” but recognized that prices were still too high and more needed to be done to bring them down.
One of the most notable pieces of Harris’s economic record is a bill she introduced as Senator in 2017 that would have given a tax credit of up to $6,000 for low- and middle-income households. Harris proposed offsetting the tax credit by enacting a fee on large financial institutions and repealing most provisions of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Harris’s plans for 2025
Harris’s platform calls for “an opportunity economy and lower costs for families.” It focuses on reducing costs across key sectors of the economy, including housing, healthcare, education, and childcare. It also promises to support middle-class families by targeting anti-competitive corporate practices, cutting taxes for new businesses and the middle class, and investing in infrastructure updates like high-speed internet.
Similarly, the 2024 Democratic Party platform focuses on various strategies to cut prices. Some of the hallmarks of the plan are:
- Continuing to negotiate lower prices of prescription drugs covered by Medicare (a provision created by the Inflation Reduction Act), with a goal of saving taxpayers nearly $160 billion over the next 10 years
- Targeting price-gouging by corporations
- Targeting collusion among oil producers
- Continuing antitrust enforcement to prevent large corporate mergers
- Addressing ongoing issues in the supply chains and promoting competition within industries
- Offering a $10,000 mortgage-relief tax credit to first-time homebuyers, and $25,000 in down-payment assistance to buyers from families without any homeowners
- Cracking down on “junk fees,” like online rent payment or to receive sorted mail
On the campaign trail, Harris has echoed many elements of President Biden’s economic policy and the Democratic Party platform, including raising taxes on the wealthy (though she favors a corporate tax rate of 28%, less than what Biden has proposed). She has also supported a plan (first put forth by Trump) to eliminate taxes on workers’ tips, an expanded refundable child tax credit providing $3,000 per child to most parents and up to $6,000 for parents of newborns, and a $50,000 tax benefit for new small businesses. She also proposed an increase in the Medicare tax from 3.8% to 5% for people making more than $400,000. Further, she would raise the capital gains tax from 20% to 28% for people who make $1 million or more annually. Lastly, in contrast to Trump, Harris has said she will not seek greater influence in Fed decision making.
Immigration.
Immigration is one of the defining issues of the 2024 election. Currently, voters say they trust Trump more than Harris on immigration, and Trump has tried to make the issue central to his campaign much like he did in 2016. For the purposes of today’s newsletter, we are going to focus on illegal immigration, though we’ll reference each candidate’s record on legal immigration as well.