We are in uncharted territory. Here's what we know.
On Sunday, President Joe Biden announced he is dropping his reelection campaign and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him on the ticket. Biden, until now the presumptive Democratic nominee, leaves the race later in the election cycle than any sitting president in U.S. history. His exit sets the stage for an intense rush to unite the Democratic Party around a new candidate before the August nominating convention in Chicago.
There has been a lot of commentary about Biden dropping out. Some of it, I think, has been wise and thoughtful. But a lot has been misguided or fanciful. Here are 24 thoughts on Biden dropping out:
- First and foremost, Biden made the right decision. As I said two weeks ago, it was rather obvious that President Biden should drop out, through several different lenses: As an American without any horse in the race, I don’t believe he could competently be president for another four years. Watch a video of Biden from three years ago, then watch the debate, and then tell me you are confident he’d be okay in four years. If I put my Democratic strategist hat on, I’d want to pivot because Biden was likely to lose the election while the party has a bench of stronger candidates. If observing as a GOP strategist, Biden was probably the candidate you wanted to face; but Harris would be a close second (more on that in a minute).
- It's always weird watching political talking points shape up in real time — immediately after Biden’s announcement, I watched several prominent conservatives and Trump supporters start suggesting that "Democratic elites" were enacting a coup and undermining democracy by forcing Biden out. I think this is... really, really silly. Democrats didn’t hold a competitive primary. Secondly, voters pushed this, not Democratic elites. Biden was getting crushed in swing-state polls and the response to the debate from a large portion of voters was crystal clear: some disappointment, and a lot of shock and worry. Focus group results were awful. Democratic House representatives in swing states were the first to break against Biden because of their constituents, and then governors and other prominent donors began to turn on him. Democratic elites actually did the opposite of leading a coup on Biden — they circled the wagons and held out until it was obvious they had no other choice. They tried to stop this and they failed, then they came together to push Biden to step aside.
- The Democratic Party has done a lot of things in the last 8 to 10 years to distance itself from its grassroots voters and hurt the party’s image. The work to ensure Hillary Clinton would be the nominee in 2016 during what was supposed to be an open primary is near the top of the list. Forcing Biden out is, genuinely, close to the opposite. It is responsive to polling, to focus groups, and to constituent demands at the grassroots level. Remember that only a couple dozen House Democrats and a handful of Democratic senators came out against Biden before he dropped out himself.
- The most democratic way the Democratic Party could have handled the 2024 race was by having an open and competitive primary last year. They didn't do that (which, of course, is common for incumbents). The least democratic way they could have handled 2024 once Biden won that primary would have been to force Biden out and coronate a hand-selected successor — say, someone like Gov. Gavin Newsom (CA). I actually think picking Harris, who was chosen by Biden (who won in 2020 and won the primary), is a kind of middle ground between an open primary and the party elites picking someone. Harris was chosen by the man voters picked, and she was on the ticket the majority of voters selected knowing full well (given Biden's age) she could one day replace him. I think it’s both logical and fair for Biden to endorse her.
- This is entirely unchartered water. That phrase has been thrown around a lot lately, but in this case it’s genuinely true. Nobody can confidently say what is going to happen these next few weeks. With that in mind, it’s worth remembering that someone else aside from Harris may end up atop the ticket; but I sincerely doubt it. Biden endorsed her. She (probably) has access to his money. His campaign has effectively been transferred to her. I think this is a done deal, even though the delegates at the DNC convention could decide to go another direction. To me, the only question remaining is who her vice president is going to be. My money is on a white male with moderate left politics, probably someone popular from a swing state. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro? Arizona Senator Mark Kelly? Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear? All would be near the top of my list in likelihood. No, it will not be Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, Mitt Romney, or Joe Biden.
- By far the most scandalous aspect of Biden’s decision is that it took so long. Biden's inner circle did their best to shield him from press scrutiny and conceal the decline that was observable to anyone with two ears and two eyes. The media obliged. Some of us have been questioning Biden's fitness for several years (and taking a great deal of flack for it). He said he was going to be a “bridge to the next generation” and implied he'd be a one-term president. Now he will be. But the pressure campaign required to get here was remarkable.
- I am fully supportive of an open convention. Part of that is selfish: Tangle has press passes for the DNC (we applied for the RNC and the DNC, but we only got the latter), so I'll be there in person and would genuinely like to observe the process. But I also think an open convention is the most democratic option, and I think it'd be good for this party to shake things up and see what happens if they let their top talent fight it out.
- What can we say about Nancy Pelosi? Has any politician in the last few decades wielded more consistent power over the Democratic Party than she has? She is getting a lot of credit (on and off the record) for orchestrating Biden’s ouster, and it’s pretty incredible to consider what a force she still is even after stepping down from her House leadership position.
- A lot of people are wondering aloud how Biden is fit to serve but not fit to run for re-election. I think this is a fair question. One simple answer is that Biden is not dropping out because he (or his inner circle) believes he isn’t fit to serve, but because he isn’t likely to win. Another plausible answer is that his circle believes he is fit to serve right now but recognize that — given the huge toll the last three years have taken on him — four years from now he probably won't be able to do his job. However, it is possible that Biden isn’t fit to serve right now. I genuinely don't know which answer is right, because I don't know enough about his medical history or day-to-day state to say. But based on how he has appeared in public, it's hard to imagine he is in full control of his administration.
- Two of my least favorite groups in politics are the over-educated, self-righteous, ultra-progressive liberals who constantly try to police people's language and the proudly ignorant, alt-right "conservatives" who embrace worm-brained conspiracies about everything. But I have to say: The new breed of Bitcoin tech-bro elites like David Sacks and Balaji Srinivasan who seemingly started following politics four months ago and now confidently think they know everything (while making hare-brained predictions like Michelle Obama becoming the nominee) are quickly climbing my list.
- I messaged about 50-60 friends and family on Sunday night with an open-ended question: How are you feeling about the prospect of Harris replacing Biden? Of the Democratic voters who responded, the majority of whom live in Pennsylvania (where I live and grew up), the number one response was "relieved." Here are some other common representative responses: Biden did the right thing. I'm worried Harris can't win. I wish it was an open convention. Nervous but hopeful. I have hope. I'm all in. Confident our odds are better with Harris, or any Democrat. Needed something to re-energize the party… Notably absent was anyone saying it was the wrong choice or expressing any anger about it.
- From my Republican-voting friends and family who responded, these were the common responses: She's a hack. She's a fraud. She's better than Biden because of her age but worse on policy. She is more progressive. Trump is going to mop the floor with her. Trump will crush her. Scarier on policy but better because she isn't so old. I'm voting for Trump no matter what, so it doesn't matter. I'm curious to see her VP but I am probably voting third party.
- I posed the same question on Twitter. There, the most common sentiment (at least as of this writing) was that Harris couldn't win, may not be the nominee, or shouldn't be the nominee. There was the same relief and support for Biden dropping out, but much more skepticism she could beat Trump.
- I don't think Vice President Kamala Harris is a great politician. I have been very critical of her in the past. I think she fails to connect with voters en masse, hence her middling performance in the 2020 Democratic primary. However, people have gotten so negative on her that at this point I think she might be underrated. Memorable exceptions aside, she is a good speaker. She is a good debater. She is youthful compared to both Biden and Trump. She was a prosecutor who wrote a whole book on reducing crime, which remains one of the top issues coming into the 2024 election. If she and Trump debate, I think she'll do better than a lot of people think.
- Small-dollar donors raised over $27.5 million on ActBlue in the first five hours of Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign (and over $50 million by this morning). That is a sign of incredibly strong grassroots support for Harris, or for Biden dropping out (or both).
- Biden has been a pretty big drag on the party in polling the last few months. Consider a recent set of YouGov polls: In Arizona, Trump was up on Biden by 7 points, but the Democratic Senate nominee was up on the Republican Senate nominee by 8 points. In Michigan, Trump was up on Biden by 2 points, but the Democratic Senate nominee was up on the Republican Senate nominee by 9 points. In Pennsylvania, Trump was up on Biden by 3 points, but the Democratic Senate nominee was up on the Republican Senate nominee by 12. Et cetera. It's worth stating plainly that Democrats are probably stronger in these swing states than Republicans, but Biden was just that bad for many voters compared to Trump. Harris will almost certainly close the gap.
- Donald Trump is now the oldest nominee of any major party in U.S. history. Get ready to hear that line a lot from Democrats. Interestingly, in the last 30 years, there have been four instances where a Democrat running for president was running against a Republican 10+ years older than them. Democrats won all four (Clinton over Bush in 1992, Clinton over Dole in 1996, Obama over McCain in 2008, and Obama over Romney in 2012).
- If I had to put odds on the Biden-Trump match-up, I would have said there is about a 70% chance Trump was going to win. I think if Harris picks a moderate candidate from a swing state as her running mate, her odds are closer to 50% to win. My initial instinct about the news was that it might bring a jolt of energy strong enough to make her a favorite, but after spending a night on all the available polling, it's pretty clear she’s still an underdog. After campaigning, and the twists and turns of the race, I could easily see Trump creating some distance — but I think in the midst of the assassination attempt and questions about Biden's fitness, a lot of people have forgotten how much your average Democrat or moderate genuinely detests Trump. He has some of the worst negatives of any politician ever, and I think Dems very well may end up back in the driver's seat before election day.
- What does Biden do now? I'm surprised more people aren't talking about this. He has over five months left in his presidency. He was spurned by his own party. He clearly did not want to drop out, but was instead forced out by the people around him. I'm very, very curious to see how he reacts. Will he quietly ride off into the sunset? Will he re-orient all his energy to Harris's campaign and beating Trump? Or will we see the "Dark Brandon" meme in action — some kind of Biden unchained who says and does whatever he wants (does he pardon Hunter?), and who fights hard to push his agenda and pet projects before leaving office?
- Fun fact: This will be the first Presidential election since 1976 to not have a Biden, Bush, or Clinton on the ticket.
- I was listening to the sports analyst Bill Simmons discuss Biden dropping out this morning. He compared it to an NFL team’s fan base really wanting a second-string quarterback to come in because the starter was playing terribly, and then realizing that the second stringer was the second stringer for a reason. I think this is a good analogy to predict what might happen (i.e. Harris flopping and Democrats getting rolled). However, it’s also true that sometimes a second-string quarterback comes in and absolutely lights it up, even if he’s worse than the starter, because the defense’s game plan was built entirely for the starting quarterback. And I think that could also happen here. My genuine read on this situation is that Trump wanted Biden to stay in the race and would have much preferred to run against him than Harris.
- A lot of people like to say that presidential debates don’t matter. I’m very curious what those people think now.
- I find it very odd that Biden made this decision without us ever seeing or hearing directly from him. I know he has Covid, so making a national address is complicated and he probably doesn’t look or sound great. But he just made the most consequential decision of his entire term (perhaps career), and all we have is a picture of a typed-up statement that has his signature on it. He could have easily uploaded a 60-second video, or taken questions outside at a distance from the press. The whole thing is just very, very bizarre, and I am extremely curious to see and hear from him directly.
- On May 30, Trump was convicted in the hush money trial. On June 11, the president's son Hunter Biden was found guilty of federal gun crimes. On June 27, Biden gave the debate performance that led to him dropping out. On July 1, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump had broad immunity for official acts as president. On July 13, someone tried to assassinate Trump. On July 15, a Florida judge dismissed Trump's classified documents case. That same day, Trump tapped J.D. Vance as his running mate. On July 21, Biden announced he was dropping his re-election bid. That's less than two months of history-making news. The election is over three months away. Buckle up.