SPECIAL EDITION: The Senate races.

Today, we break down the seven big Senate races.

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

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Tomorrow, I make my predictions.

In today's edition of Tangle, we're going to offer some analysis on the seven of the biggest Senate races. In tomorrow's members-only edition, I'll be sharing my personal predictions on the 2024 presidential race, the Senate races, and the House races. I'll also be calling out some things to expect leading up to, on the night of, and immediately after the election.

Quick hits.

1. BREAKING: Israeli officials say Israel Defense Forces likely killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the organizer of the Oct. 7 attacks. The military is waiting for DNA and fingerprint confirmation of Sinwar’s identity. (The latest)
2. Israel said it allowed 50 aid trucks to enter northern Gaza from Jordan one day after the Biden administration warned that it would restrict shipments of military supplies to Israel if it did not better address the humanitarian situation in Gaza. (The aid)
3. The Nebraska Supreme Court ruled that state residents with felony records can register to vote immediately after finishing their sentences, granting eligibility to thousands of Nebraskans ahead of the state’s voter registration deadline. (The decision)
4. In an interview with Fox News’s Brett Baier, Vice President Kamala Harris faced questions about her record on immigration and how her administration would be different from President Joe Biden’s. (The interview)
5. The U.S. Navy announced that a fighter jet crashed in Washington state during a training flight. The Navy has located the wreckage, but the aircraft’s two crew members remain missing. (The crash)
6. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented the country’s parliament with a plan to end its war with Russia in 2025. (The plan) Separately, President Biden announced a new $425 million military aid package for Ukraine that includes air defense capabilities, air-to-ground munitions, armored vehicles, and critical munitions. (The aid) 

Today's topic.

The Senate races. On November 5, in addition to presidential, House, state and local elections, voters will be casting ballots in 34 Senate elections in 33 different states. Currently, a coalition of 47 Democrats and four independent senators holds a 51-49 advantage over Republicans in Congress’s upper chamber. This year, Republicans are only defending 11 of the 33 Senate seats up for election and are likely to hold all 11. Two of the 23 Democratic seats up for election — in West Virginia and Montana — are rated solid Republican and lean Republican, respectively, by Cook Political Report.

Today, we've decided to highlight seven competitive Senate races that we think will play a major role in determining the Senate majority in 2024: Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin. We'll share commentary from the right and left about these races, then my analysis.

Arizona: Rep. Reuben Gallego (D-AZ) is running against former newscaster Kari Lake (R) for the seat that current Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I) is vacating at the end of her term. Gallego is a current member of the U.S. House, former state legislator, and U.S. Marine Corps veteran. Lake was a news anchor for Phoenix TV station KSAZ and the Republican candidate for governor in 2022. When Sen. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022, her exit set up a dramatic three-way race with Gallego and Lake, who lost her bid for governor in 2022 by less than a percentage point. Since Sinema dropped out in March, Gallego has been leading Lake in the polls, and he currently leads by an average of 7 points.

Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) is running against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) for the seat that Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is vacating at the end of her term. Slotkin is a current member of the U.S. House and a former CIA analyst. Rogers is a former U.S. Representative and FBI agent. In a race between two national security professionals in a 2024 swing state, both Slotkin and Rogers are painting their opponent as not bipartisan enough to represent Michigan. Slotkin has maintained a slight polling advantage over Rogers, and she is currently ahead by 4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D) is running to defend his seat against challenger Tim Sheehy (R). Tester is a three-term senator, farmer, and former music teacher. Sheehy is a former U.S. Navy SEAL officer and founder of two aerospace companies. Tester has held his Senate seat in deep-red Montana since 2006, and Democrats are unlikely to hold their Senate majority if Sheehy flips the seat. Despite being outraised by Tester by $30 million, Sheehy has pulled ahead of the incumbent and now leads by 5 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Nebraska: Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is running to defend her seat against independent challenger Dan Osborn. Fischer is a two-term senator, cattle ranch owner, former school board member, and former state legislator. Osborn is a mechanic union leader, and veteran of the U.S. Navy and Nebraska National Guard. Osborn has continued to run a tight race with Fischer despite the state’s conservative tilt, with pundits believing that his independent affiliation makes the race tough to predict. Fischer has maintained an edge over Osborn, but her current polling lead is now under 1%.

Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is running to defend his seat against challenger Bernie Moreno (R). Brown is a three-term senator, former member of the U.S. House, former Ohio Secretary of State, and former state legislator. Moreno is a businessman who has run a chain of car dealerships and a blockchain company. Brown has been a popular career politician — he was first elected to the Senate in 2006 by defeating current Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) by 12% and won in 2018 by 6.8% — but is maintaining a slim lead over Moreno of roughly 2%.

Texas: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is running to defend his seat against challenger Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX). Cruz is a two-term senator, former law clerk to Justice William Rehnquist, and former director of the Office of Policy Planning for the Federal Trade Commission. Allred is a current member of the U.S. House and former football player for the Tennessee Titans. Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, and Cruz’s seat is rated as the most contentious Republican-held Senate seat for the 2024 cycle. Cruz has maintained a consistent lead over Allred and currently has a 4-point margin in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is defending her seat against challenger Eric Hovde (R). Baldwin is a two-term senator, former state legislator, and former lawyer. Hovde is a real estate executive, bank CEO, and co-founder of the nonprofit Hovde Foundation. Despite being outraised 2:1 and facing an incumbent who won her last election by nearly 10 points, Hovde’s campaign has tightened the race to the point where an internal Republican poll shows him up by 1 point. On the polling averages, Baldwin still maintains a 4-point lead.

Additionally, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recently announced a multi-million dollar investment in television advertising in Florida’s Senate race between Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D). However, polling shows Scott with a sizable lead, and Cook Political Report rates the seat as likely Republican. 

Below, we’ll get into what the left and right are saying about these races. Then, I’ll give my take.

What the left is saying.

• The left worries that Tester’s seat will decide control of the Senate. 
• Some point to Nebraska as a source of hope that Democrats could unseat a Republican incumbent.
• Others say Democrats have no choice but to play offense in Florida and Texas. 

In The Boston Globe, Kael Weston asked “will Jon Tester be the last of the Mountain State Democrats?”

“The US Senate race in Montana, where Democratic Senator Jon Tester is facing a well-heeled Republican challenger, will test an important question in American politics today: Can the endangered species once known as ‘the rural Democrat’ survive Trumpism,” Weston wrote. “Tester, a moderate Democrat and gun owner who supports abortion rights and sits on the powerful Committee on Appropriations, has never had an easy Senate race… But this year, the popularity of Trumpism — particularly its warnings of a nation in decline and its call to fear immigrants — is making his case a much harder sell.”

“Whether Tester stages a miraculous come-from-behind win or loses as expected, Democrats nationwide should pay attention to what he has to say about winning votes in tough ZIP codes for Democrats. He has long emphasized that the party of FDR and JFK — both of whom won many rural counties across the country back in their day — is now ‘toxic' in rural America,” Weston said. “Tester’s latest stand might be his last. It could signal unexpected hope on Election Day for millions of Mountain West Democrats — or, more likely, more hard years ahead of persevering in the political wilderness defined by red state demographics and the domineering politics of Trump.”

In The Washington Post, David Von Drehle said “Democrats thought their Senate hopes were dead. They were just in Nebraska.”

“Osborn offers himself as a nonpartisan servant of the state’s working people and family farmers and sensible folks tired of the circus. In more than 150 town hall meetings, Osborn has taken every question thrown at him, patiently trying to convince voters that ‘I am someone who looks at the issues objectively with compassion, not someone whose hand is in your pocket,’” Von Drehle wrote. “His essentially libertarian approach to abortion and other culture war issues would seem to give him an edge against Fischer, who supports a strict national abortion ban.”

“In fine Nebraska style, Osborn doesn’t fit the mold, even if this is a state known to send the occasional Democrat to Washington. But he’d like to become the mold,” Von Drehle added. “A new internal poll by SurveyUSA shows Osborn with 50 percent of the likely votes and a six-point lead over Fischer, up from a one-point lead in the same poll last month. And data suggest that Osborn is winning 1 in 5 Trump voters. He’ll need that many or more to win as an independent in these highly partisan times. But if it can happen anywhere, Nebraska’s the place.”

In MSNBC, Hayes Brown wrote “Texas and Florida are too big an opportunity for Dems to pass up.”

“Democrats can look at Florida and Texas in a couple of ways. From one angle, the states are both places where victory has been just out of reach — a tantalizing ‘what if?’ From another, they offer an unlearned lesson in heartbreak, a constant loop of Lucy yanking the football away from Charlie Brown at the last second,” Brown said. “For now, the former point of view is winning out as Senate Democrats look to hold on to their slim majority… The electoral map was never a good one for Senate Democrats this cycle, forced to defend far more seats than their Republican counterparts. With the GOP set to claim a seat from retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., the upper house is already starting from a 50-50 split.”

“Florida was once the biggest swing state in the country but has shifted to the right in the last decade, producing blowout wins for the GOP in the 2022 midterms. It doesn’t help that the Democratic Party there has been a bit of a mess… Conversely, Texas is deep Republican territory that Democrats have spent the last decade trying to transform into a purple state,” Brown wrote. “With this much on the line, there’s little choice but to square up and take a running start at that football again. Better to land flat on your back than be left wishing you’d taken the chance at dispatching the likes of Scott and Cruz.”

What the right is saying.

• The right also views Montana as a decisive Senate race but many warn Republicans not to assume victory.
• Some contend the only outstanding question is how large Republicans’ Senate majority will be. 
• Others say Democrats’ efforts in long-shot states are a sign of their impending defeat. 

In The Wall Street Journal, Faith Bottum said “the Montana Senate race may decide the majority.”

“No Democratic presidential candidate has carried [Montana] since 1992, and it’s safely in Donald Trump’s camp. But the incumbent up for re-election, Sen. Jon Tester, is a Democrat who has managed since 2006 to convince Montanans that the state needs him to help with local concerns,” Bottum wrote. “If the Montana Senate race comes down to national issues—inflation, immigration, interest rates—then the Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, is likely to win. If the election revolves primarily around local issues—public-land use, housing, the Right to Abortion Initiative—Mr. Tester stands a good chance of re-election.”

“Mr. Sheehy’s polling advantage may stick simply because voters are tuning out the candidates’ incessant advertising,” but “Mr. Tester has been in close races before and pulled them out,” Bottum noted. “The real question for Mr. Tester is whether his old-style Democratic campaigning still works in Montana, where no other Democrat has been elected statewide since 2016. The Republicanization of the working class, the importance of national issues and the rising number of new conservatives in the state give the edge to Mr. Sheehy. But it’s still close, and a GOP Senate isn’t a sure thing.”

In PJ Media, Rick Moran asked “how big a Senate majority can the GOP expect after the election?”

“The question has never been, ‘Will the GOP win a majority in the Senate?’ The question has always been, ‘How big will that majority end up being,’” Moran wrote. “Democrats have already written off West Virginia… Elsewhere, there are several Senate races where the GOP is ahead or in striking distance. In the presidential battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin, Democratic incumbents are barely hanging on. In Montana, GOP Rep. Tim Sheehy is comfortably ahead of incumbent Democrat Jon Tester.”

“Senator Rick Scott in Florida has pulled away from Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by nine points. Senator Ted Cruz in Texas is up 48-45 over Colin Allred in a state that Democrats have been claiming they've been on the verge of flipping for the last decade,” Moran said. “There's a chance the GOP could win a clean sweep of those eight seats held by Democrats. Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52-53 seat majority.”

In The Washington Examiner, Jeremiah Poff suggested Democrats’ efforts in Florida and Texas are “desperate.”

“To keep the Senate at a 50-50 tie, Democrats are facing increasingly long odds of holding the Montana senate seat currently held by Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), and also face a challenge in holding the seat of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH). Both men represent states that are all but assured of being won easily by former President Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential race and must rest their hopes for another term on the willingness of Trump voters to vote for Democrats downballot,” Poff wrote. “But in the 12 years since the Class I senators last shared the ballot with presidential candidates, only one senator has managed to win a race that saw the other party’s nominee win the state in the concurrent presidential election: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).”

“Which is why the Democratic Party’s decision to invest in Florida and Texas makes little sense on its surface, but is effectively the only option the party is left with if it wants to retain control of the Senate,” Poff said. “If there is any consolation for Democrats, it is this: Republican senate candidates in competitive seats are currently running several points behind Trump in polls. Still, the scarcity of ticket splitting means that the party desperately needs Vice President Kamala Harris to win several swing states to give Democrats a shot at keeping the Senate by pulling off an upset in unfavorable territory, assuming ticket splitting does not make an unexpected comeback.”

My take.

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No matter how you look at the Senate map, the outlook is bleak for Democrats. 

I’m going to give state-specific predictions in tomorrow’s edition, but the simple reality is this: West Virginia is lost, and Montana appears headed in the same direction. Other got-to-have races in Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin seem to be on shakier ground than they were a month ago. Virtually all major polling outfits think Republicans are more likely than not to flip the chamber, and I share that expectation. PJ Media’s Rick Moran (under “What the right is saying”) is probably right to say that we shouldn’t focus on whether Republicans will retake the Senate, but just how many seats they will pick up. 

Democrats undoubtedly face a tough map in this cycle — counting West Virginia, they have 23 seats to defend to Republicans’ 11, and they have to do so in a presidential election year (when turnout is typically at its highest). Conversely, Republicans are only defending reliably red states. But Democratic Party leaders and analysts have known this was coming for years, and bad luck alone doesn’t explain why they are now staring down a potential catastrophe. 

To explore the specifics of why Democrats are struggling, I’m going to give a short take on the seven Senate races that seem most important to determining party control — touching on the major narratives, the latest outlook, and the chances of a surprise outcome. Of course, as a national politics reporter, I don’t know these races as well as some state-level reporters and pundits might. But in many ways, these campaigns reflect our national politics in ways that should resonate even if you aren’t familiar with the specifics of each race. Let’s dive in. 

Arizona: Ruben Gallego’s (D) commanding lead over Kari Lake (R) in purple Arizona is somewhat shocking — he was a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus just two years ago, and if he was known at all nationally, it was for tweets like this. It’s easy to understand why an astronaut-veteran like Mark Kelly wins in Arizona; it’s harder to see how someone like Gallego could be a viable statewide candidate — until you compare him to his opponent. Put simply, voters really, really don’t like Kari Lake. She strikes me as a shameless opportunist, and her 2022 campaign for governor was defined, in part, by bashing John McCain and denying the 2020 election results (and then the results of her own election loss). I don’t like her chances this time around, either — the latest Marist poll found Lake’s favorability is underwater, and those impressions are likely solidified at this point in the race. 

Republicans like Mitch McConnell have been warning about the need for strong candidates in these close races, and they can’t be happy about Lake in this very winnable race. All signs point toward Gallego winning. 

Michigan: A Republican hasn’t won a Senate race in Michigan in three decades, but Mike Rogers has a strong shot at reversing that trend. Even though Trump’s 2016 upset is an outlier against a deep blue background in Michigan, there’s plenty of reason to suspect the state will be close again in 2024. In recent weeks, local organizers and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) herself have been ringing alarm bells about the situation on the ground in a way that’s reminiscent of the stories that came out of Wisconsin in October of 2016. While Slotkin has a significant fundraising edge, the GOP’s Senate Leadership Fund is spending on the race like it believes it has a genuine chance to win. 

A key narrative to watch is whether suburban Michigan will continue its shift toward Democrats, or whether Rogers can win back voters who stopped supporting the GOP because of Trump. I think the leaks coming out of Slotkin’s office point to big trouble for Democrats, and I’ll be talking more about this race in tomorrow’s Friday edition. 

Montana: Commentators on the left and right both view this race as not just the one most likely to swing control of the Senate but also one that symbolizes political realignment in the age of Trump. To me, the race is compelling not just for its implications but because of the candidates. Tester (D) personifies Montana without veering into caricature, leaning into his image as a dirt farmer who’s looked out for the state’s interests since he was elected to the Senate in 2006 (notably, he’s also one of the country’s most popular senators). Meanwhile, Sheehy (R) is a former Navy SEAL who built two successful aerospace businesses in Montana — one military technology company, which he sold, and another focused on fighting wildfires. In other words, both parties are fielding their strongest candidates.

Sheehy is up big in the polls, but I think there are two important caveats to consider when assessing the race: Montana is difficult to poll, and Tester has a history of finishing strong in competitive campaigns. Still, Tester’s prospects look dim, and he may very well join West Virginia’s Joe Manchin as the last of the “rural Democrats.”

Nebraska: The story unfolding in Nebraska’s Senate race is one of the most surprising of the 2024 election, and it gives Democrats a glimmer of hope that they could deny Republicans an outright flip of the chamber. To recap: Independent candidate Dan Osborn is running a longshot campaign to oust incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R), and he’s kept it close enough that some recent polls show him in the lead. The state is expected to vote for Trump by a wide margin (with the exception of its 2nd Congressional District, which allocates its electoral vote separately), but Osborn is an appealing character whose politics are hard to pin down. Most importantly, he’s centered his campaign on hyper-local issues, like right-to-repair legislation for farm equipment and rail safety measures, while prioritizing on-the-ground engagement. 

I think Republicans are right to worry about this race, even if I still view Fischer as the favorite. Osborn seems to have a charisma that appeals to working-class voters (not unlike Trump), and should he pull off the upset, he’d be a major wild card regardless of whether Republicans flip the Senate. 

Ohio: I think this race will determine whether Republicans take back the Senate in dominant fashion (say, picking up four or five seats) or whether they eke out a majority. Brown (D) faces a challenge similar to Jon Tester in Montana — he’s running in a state that’s certain to go for Trump and where most other Democrats would be losing handily. But also like Tester, Brown is one of the most adept politicians in the country, someone who’s built a political profile over a long career in Ohio politics that enables him to stand apart from broad generalizations about the Democratic Party. 

He’s also in the toughest fight of his career. Moreno (R) has tied himself to Trump’s hip, and it looks like a smart strategy; recent polls show the race is a toss-up. He has also cut into Brown’s once-significant fundraising advantage, putting the incumbent on the defensive on sensitive issues. Moreno has his fair share of vulnerabilities, but both parties will be sweating this one out to the wire. If Brown goes down, you can expect a very good night across the board for Republicans.

Texas: In recent weeks, several major news outlets have published stories about the race between Cruz (R) and Allred (D), suggesting that the incumbent Republican is in trouble. If that narrative sounds familiar, that’s because it’s very similar to the stories from the home stretch of Cruz’s 2018 race against Beto O’Rourke. That election ended up relatively close for a Democrat in Texas, but Beto still fell short. I think we’re in for a similar outcome this year. 

Allred is a pretty good politician, and he’s generally run a savvy campaign. But Cruz has won tough fights before, and he’s running in a national political environment that seems far more favorable to Republicans than it was in 2018. Democrats have long been pining for a major upset in Texas, the kind that would cement a political realignment that shifts the outlook for presidential elections and beyond (remember: Texas has 40 electoral votes, second only to California). That day may come, as the electoral maps have changed all throughout American history. But I don’t think this is the year. 

Wisconsin: This race is going in the wrong direction for Tammy Baldwin and the Democrats. Last week, Cook Political Report shifted its rating for the race from “lean D” to “toss up,” a decision that’s backed up by other recent polls. And it’s not just the polls; the surest sign that a race is close is when national parties start spending heavily, and the money is pouring into Wisconsin. Whether it will be enough to propel Hovde to victory remains to be seen — he’s a political rookie who lacks strong roots in Wisconsin, and Baldwin has landed some effective blows about his positions on abortion and Social Security. 

Most troubling for Democrats, though, is what Baldwin’s struggles signal about their overall prospects in the state. Baldwin won by 11% the last time she stood for reelection, but now she’s fighting for her political life as Trump has cut Harris’s polling lead to less than a point. Baldwin won’t need to outrun Harris by the same margins as Tester or Brown, but the vice president’s recent struggles in the Rust Belt mean that Baldwin may have to outperform the top of the ticket to keep her seat. Much like the Michigan and Ohio Senate races, the outcome in Wisconsin could be the difference between a big night for Republicans and an underwhelming one.

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Under the radar.

The number of petitions for union membership has soared under President Joe Biden after declining during the Trump administration. 3,286 petitions were filed with the government in fiscal year 2024 — over double the 1,638 in 2021 — marking the first increase in unionization petitions during a presidential term since Gerald Ford’s administration. Union workers are expected to be a key constituency in the 2024 election, particularly in swing states Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Biden won 56% of the union vote in 2020, but Trump is hoping to make headway with the group on the back of proposals to put tariffs on many imports. The Associated Press has the story.

Numbers.

• 196. Since 1948, the number of split presidential-Senate outcomes, in which a state votes for a presidential candidate from one party and a Senate candidate from another. 
• 70%. Of those split-ticket outcomes, the approximate percentage that were Democratic Senate candidates winning in a state won by the Republican presidential candidate. 
• 1. The number of states that produced a split-ticket outcome in the 2016 and 2020 elections combined (Maine in 2020). 
• 18. The number of states that produced split-ticket outcomes in 1968, the most of any presidential election since 1948. 
• 10. The number of states that produced split-ticket outcomes in 2000, the most of any presidential election in the 21st century. 
• 5. The number of Senate races for seats currently held by Democrats rated as toss-ups, lean Republican, or solid Republican by Cook Political Report. 
• 0. The number of Senate races for seats currently held by Republicans rated as toss-ups or lean Democrat. 
• 72%. Republicans’ chances to win the Senate in 2024, according to Decision Desk HQ’s forecast model. 
• 52 and 48. The projected number of Senate seats that will be won by Republicans and Democrats, respectively. 

The extras.

• One year ago today we covered Biden’s latest student-debt cancellation attempt.
• The most clicked link in yesterday’s newsletter was the ad in the free version to enter a luggage giveaway contest.
• Nothing to do with politics: A prize-winning pumpkin in California weighed in at 2,471 pounds.
• Yesterday’s survey: 1,534 readers responded to our survey about Kamala Harris’s agenda for black men with 59% opposed. “It’s good to address relevant issues but, in my opinion, is insulting to other ethnic groups. She is also half Asian…do they feel excluded?” one respondent said.

Have a nice day.

At seven years old, Dhanush Eashwar was already coding. His first app was a tic-tac-toe game he played with his younger sister. By the time he reached his teens, Eashwar was looking for ways to use coding to solve real-world issues. This year, at 17, Eashwar’s solution-oriented focus made him one of 50 winners in Apple’s Swift Student Challenge. His submission was an app called Finger Dance that helps individuals learn ASL. Currently, he’s working on an app that translates ASL hand signs to English in real time, “like a Google Translate for visual languages,” he said. Nice News has the story.

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